Why McCain Still Has a Chance To Win
Written by Peter Robinson
Appearing in "Wall Street Journal" (Published 09/02/2008 :: Political Commentary)
With Barack Obama already established as a skillful rhetorician, people keep asking me, a former White House speechwriter, about John McCain. Can he say anything -- anything at all -- that might place him in the company of Ronald Reagan, the president for whom I used to work?
The answer, I believe, is yes. Before I explain, I need to note one way Sen. McCain has already placed himself alongside President Reagan: by being wildly underestimated.
As recently as July 4, even the most loyal Republicans privately expected the summer to go badly for their candidate. Sen. Obama had already opened a lead over Mr. McCain. He would proceed to raise far more money than his opponent and then spend heavily on advertising, increasing his lead. Reaching Denver ahead by five or 10 points, Mr. Obama would leave with a lead well into double digits. Republicans would then find themselves preparing to undergo the exquisite agony in St. Paul of putting up a brave front while the mainstream media looked on and chortled.
None of that happened.
Mr. Obama did indeed raise more money than Mr. McCain, but by much less than expected. His advertising proved insipid -- during the Olympics, you could have been forgiven for confusing his ads with those from General Electric -- while Mr. McCain's advertising proved pointed, funny and memorable. Reaching Denver only even in the polls, Mr. Obama left with a lead in single, not double, digits, experiencing only a modest bounce. And as Republicans began gathering for their convention this past weekend, restaurants and dining rooms throughout the Twin Cities resounded with the whooping and cackling of the suddenly reprieved.
Two factors contributed to this astonishing turnaround. One has already been widely remarked upon: the uneven performance of Mr. Obama.
In Berlin, he whipped a couple of hundred thousand Germans into a screaming fit by delivering a speech that would have proven flawless if only he had been running for president of the European Union. In Orange County, he answered a question about abortion from Pastor Rick Warren by languidly remarking that the matter was "above my pay grade."
The other factor is so unexpected -- so difficult for the chattering classes to assimilate -- that it is only now gaining recognition. John McCain has been good. Really very, very good.
While his 47-year-old opponent spent more than a week early last month resting up in Hawaii, the septuagenarian Mr. McCain remained on the campaign trail, displaying his energies by speaking half a dozen times a day. Later in the month, answering the same questions from Pastor Warren, Mr. McCain conveyed stature and gravity while Mr. Obama did not.
And last week, when he named as his running mate Sarah Palin of Alaska -- a pro-life, gun-owning mother of five who got elected to the governor's mansion by running against the GOP establishment -- Mr. McCain accomplished a remarkable feat. He electrified the conservative base of the Republican Party while appealing to reform-minded Independents. Finally, by scaling back the Republican convention because of Hurricane Gustav, putting the nation's interests above partisan politics, he's shown himself to be -- first and foremost -- a public servant.
Why has Mr. McCain's performance proven so startling? So thoroughly unexpected? Ronald Reagan was underestimated because many scarcely knew him. He rose to prominence when California was remote from the media centers of Washington and New York. Mr. McCain was underestimated because many observers already know him so well. At least they thought they did.
The John McCain of 2008, journalists and activists understandably assumed, would be the same man they encountered during the campaign of 2000. The irreverent, wisecracking John McCain. The John McCain who cared about the good opinion of reporters at least as much as he cared about the good opinion of Republican voters. The John McCain who had proven -- let's face it -- unserious. Why expect anything different this time around?
In the set of his jaw, the cast of his eyes, and the whole attitude of utter sobriety he displays whenever he discusses foreign policy, Mr. McCain has provided the answer. In 2000 the country was still enjoying the untroubled decade that followed the Cold War. Today it faces warfare in Iraq and Afghanistan, an Iran racing to acquire nuclear weapons and a North Korea that has already done so, a Russia intent on reclaiming its old empire, a China busy devoting heaping portions of its new wealth to its armed forces, and the constant, inescapable threat of another terrorist attack.
If he sometimes treated his 2000 campaign as a mere attempt to move up the ladder, Mr. McCain treats this campaign as a duty. And this, I think, represents the underlying reason Mr. McCain has been able to defy the odds, keeping the presidential race wide open. Whereas Mr. Obama remains a complicated, enigmatic figure -- in the profile it published the day he delivered his acceptance speech, the New York Times called him "elusive" -- Mr. McCain has come into focus, becoming a candidate voters can understand.
The man is a patriot. Grasp that and you have grasped John McCain. Refusing 40 years ago to accept early release from his imprisonment in the Hanoi Hilton and running for president today -- both are of a piece. Seen in this light, even Mr. McCain's shortcomings make a certain kind of sense. McCain-Feingold? Bad legislation. But you can almost understand why he backed it.
Mr. McCain sees the money sloshing around Washington as an insult to America -- and he takes such insults personally. Patriot though he is, Mr. McCain is too imbued with the military ethic (which of course eschews ostentatious displays) to trumpet his patriotism.
And this brings me back to the question with which I started. To place himself in the company of President Reagan, I believe, Mr. McCain need only overcome his inhibitions for an hour, using his acceptance speech on Thursday night to tell the American people about his feelings for this Republic.
Between his relief efforts for the victims of Gustav and the fund raising for the GOP that falls to him as the new leader of the party, Mr. McCain might simply sit down for a few moments today or tomorrow, ponder the following quotation, then holler to his speechwriters to sit down and take notes while he renders the ideas it conveys into his own words. "I have always believed," said Ronald Reagan, "that there was some divine plan that placed this great continent between two oceans to be sought out by those who were possessed of an abiding love of freedom and a special kind of courage."
Mr. Obama may be able to offer voters all the attractions of high rhetoric, but Mr. McCain can offer something else: an uncomplicated love of country.
Mr. Robinson, a fellow at the Hoover Institution and a contributor to robinsonandlong.com, served as a speechwriter and special assistant to President Reagan.
The answer, I believe, is yes. Before I explain, I need to note one way Sen. McCain has already placed himself alongside President Reagan: by being wildly underestimated.
As recently as July 4, even the most loyal Republicans privately expected the summer to go badly for their candidate. Sen. Obama had already opened a lead over Mr. McCain. He would proceed to raise far more money than his opponent and then spend heavily on advertising, increasing his lead. Reaching Denver ahead by five or 10 points, Mr. Obama would leave with a lead well into double digits. Republicans would then find themselves preparing to undergo the exquisite agony in St. Paul of putting up a brave front while the mainstream media looked on and chortled.
None of that happened.
Mr. Obama did indeed raise more money than Mr. McCain, but by much less than expected. His advertising proved insipid -- during the Olympics, you could have been forgiven for confusing his ads with those from General Electric -- while Mr. McCain's advertising proved pointed, funny and memorable. Reaching Denver only even in the polls, Mr. Obama left with a lead in single, not double, digits, experiencing only a modest bounce. And as Republicans began gathering for their convention this past weekend, restaurants and dining rooms throughout the Twin Cities resounded with the whooping and cackling of the suddenly reprieved.
Two factors contributed to this astonishing turnaround. One has already been widely remarked upon: the uneven performance of Mr. Obama.
In Berlin, he whipped a couple of hundred thousand Germans into a screaming fit by delivering a speech that would have proven flawless if only he had been running for president of the European Union. In Orange County, he answered a question about abortion from Pastor Rick Warren by languidly remarking that the matter was "above my pay grade."
The other factor is so unexpected -- so difficult for the chattering classes to assimilate -- that it is only now gaining recognition. John McCain has been good. Really very, very good.
While his 47-year-old opponent spent more than a week early last month resting up in Hawaii, the septuagenarian Mr. McCain remained on the campaign trail, displaying his energies by speaking half a dozen times a day. Later in the month, answering the same questions from Pastor Warren, Mr. McCain conveyed stature and gravity while Mr. Obama did not.
And last week, when he named as his running mate Sarah Palin of Alaska -- a pro-life, gun-owning mother of five who got elected to the governor's mansion by running against the GOP establishment -- Mr. McCain accomplished a remarkable feat. He electrified the conservative base of the Republican Party while appealing to reform-minded Independents. Finally, by scaling back the Republican convention because of Hurricane Gustav, putting the nation's interests above partisan politics, he's shown himself to be -- first and foremost -- a public servant.
Why has Mr. McCain's performance proven so startling? So thoroughly unexpected? Ronald Reagan was underestimated because many scarcely knew him. He rose to prominence when California was remote from the media centers of Washington and New York. Mr. McCain was underestimated because many observers already know him so well. At least they thought they did.
The John McCain of 2008, journalists and activists understandably assumed, would be the same man they encountered during the campaign of 2000. The irreverent, wisecracking John McCain. The John McCain who cared about the good opinion of reporters at least as much as he cared about the good opinion of Republican voters. The John McCain who had proven -- let's face it -- unserious. Why expect anything different this time around?
In the set of his jaw, the cast of his eyes, and the whole attitude of utter sobriety he displays whenever he discusses foreign policy, Mr. McCain has provided the answer. In 2000 the country was still enjoying the untroubled decade that followed the Cold War. Today it faces warfare in Iraq and Afghanistan, an Iran racing to acquire nuclear weapons and a North Korea that has already done so, a Russia intent on reclaiming its old empire, a China busy devoting heaping portions of its new wealth to its armed forces, and the constant, inescapable threat of another terrorist attack.
If he sometimes treated his 2000 campaign as a mere attempt to move up the ladder, Mr. McCain treats this campaign as a duty. And this, I think, represents the underlying reason Mr. McCain has been able to defy the odds, keeping the presidential race wide open. Whereas Mr. Obama remains a complicated, enigmatic figure -- in the profile it published the day he delivered his acceptance speech, the New York Times called him "elusive" -- Mr. McCain has come into focus, becoming a candidate voters can understand.
The man is a patriot. Grasp that and you have grasped John McCain. Refusing 40 years ago to accept early release from his imprisonment in the Hanoi Hilton and running for president today -- both are of a piece. Seen in this light, even Mr. McCain's shortcomings make a certain kind of sense. McCain-Feingold? Bad legislation. But you can almost understand why he backed it.
Mr. McCain sees the money sloshing around Washington as an insult to America -- and he takes such insults personally. Patriot though he is, Mr. McCain is too imbued with the military ethic (which of course eschews ostentatious displays) to trumpet his patriotism.
And this brings me back to the question with which I started. To place himself in the company of President Reagan, I believe, Mr. McCain need only overcome his inhibitions for an hour, using his acceptance speech on Thursday night to tell the American people about his feelings for this Republic.
Between his relief efforts for the victims of Gustav and the fund raising for the GOP that falls to him as the new leader of the party, Mr. McCain might simply sit down for a few moments today or tomorrow, ponder the following quotation, then holler to his speechwriters to sit down and take notes while he renders the ideas it conveys into his own words. "I have always believed," said Ronald Reagan, "that there was some divine plan that placed this great continent between two oceans to be sought out by those who were possessed of an abiding love of freedom and a special kind of courage."
Mr. Obama may be able to offer voters all the attractions of high rhetoric, but Mr. McCain can offer something else: an uncomplicated love of country.
Mr. Robinson, a fellow at the Hoover Institution and a contributor to robinsonandlong.com, served as a speechwriter and special assistant to President Reagan.
~ back ~